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UBS forecasts a bearish outlook for the Euro against the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, driven by anticipated economic data rather than the recent ECB meeting. Key indicators, including the preliminary December PMI and France's Insee survey, could signal weakness, prompting more aggressive market bets on ECB rate cuts. UBS maintains a long-term target of 0.8200 for EURGBP, with potential for further declines unless significant external shocks occur.
UBS forecasts a bearish outlook for the Euro against the Japanese Yen and the British Pound, driven by anticipated economic data rather than the recent ECB meeting. Key indicators, including the preliminary December PMI and France's Insee survey, could signal weaker inflation expectations and prompt more aggressive market bets on ECB rate cuts. UBS maintains a long-term target of 0.8200 for EURGBP, with potential for further declines unless significant external shocks occur.
President-elect Donald Trump inherits a historically high stock market, raising concerns about a potential crash. While past performance shows significant gains during his first term, current valuations suggest a possible short-lived correction. However, history indicates that patient investors may find opportunities even amid market volatility.
UBS is optimistic about the British pound (GBP), Australian dollar (AUD), and Swiss franc (CHF), predicting rises to 1.35 and 0.68 for GBP and AUD, respectively, due to high interest rates. The Swiss franc is expected to benefit from limited interest rate cuts, with a forecasted USD/CHF rate of 0.84.In contrast, UBS remains neutral on the Japanese yen (JPY), anticipating a potential rise to 155 in the short term but a decline to 145 by 2025. The outlook for the Chinese yuan (CNY) is bearish, with expectations of the USD/CNY rate reaching 7.50 by the end of 2025, driven by trade tensions and risks of further depreciation.
El Salvador is set to revise its Bitcoin law, making its use voluntary, as it approaches a $1.3 billion IMF loan deal amid economic pressures. The country has partnered with Argentina to enhance crypto regulation in Latin America, aiming to share expertise and promote innovation in the sector. Despite the shift, El Salvador remains a significant Bitcoin holder, with 5,942 BTC valued at $600 million.
UBS anticipates potential declines for the GBP due to upcoming economic data, particularly following the recent ECB meeting. They predict that the preliminary December PMI data and France's Insee survey could significantly influence market expectations and inflation forecasts. Maintaining a bearish outlook on the euro, UBS expects three 25bp rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025, while their long-term target for EUR/GBP is set at 0.8200, with a possibility of falling below this level.
UBS anticipates potential declines in EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP due to upcoming economic data, particularly preliminary PMI figures and France's Insee survey. The bank maintains a bearish outlook on the euro, expecting at least three rate cuts by the Bank of England by 2025, while targeting EUR/GBP at 0.8200. Volatility may arise from ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments on US tariffs and economic risks in France.
Donald Trump’s administration is pushing to eliminate capital gains taxes on cryptocurrencies issued by U.S. companies, aiming to position the U.S. as a leader in crypto innovation. His company, World Liberty Financial, has invested heavily in Ethereum, Chainlink, and Aave, reflecting a strategic focus on decentralized finance. This initiative includes requiring crypto firms to register in the U.S. and offers existing companies a chance to relocate, reinforcing the goal of making the U.S. the global crypto capital.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has unexpectedly cut its key interest rate by 50 basis points to 0.5%, responding to low and declining inflation rates. The strong franc is contributing to this trend, and further rate cuts are anticipated, potentially bringing the rate to 0% by the end of 2025. New SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel has not ruled out negative interest rates as the central bank navigates these economic challenges.
India's Chief Economic Advisor, V. Anantha Nageswaran, advocates for regulatory frameworks that promote cryptocurrency innovation while ensuring transparency and accountability. He emphasizes the need for regulators to balance innovation with societal needs, particularly addressing financial illiteracy. Amidst ongoing uncertainty in the crypto sector, India continues to see significant adoption, highlighted by Jetking Infotrain's recent addition of Bitcoin to its corporate treasury.
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ubs forecasts euro decline ahead of key economic data releases
10:51 12.12.2024
UBS Predicts Euro Weakness Ahead of Key Economic Data Releases
10:51 12.12.2024
stock market outlook under president elect trump historical insights and concerns
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10:51 12.12.2024
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10:49 12.12.2024
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10:47 12.12.2024
UBS Predicts Euro Volatility Ahead of Key Economic Data Releases
10:47 12.12.2024
UBS Predicts Euro Weakness Ahead of Key Economic Data Releases
10:47 12.12.2024
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